Modeling of Novel Diagnostic Strategies for Active Tuberculosis – A Systematic Review: Current Practices and Recommendations

Introduction: The field of diagnostics for active tuberculosis (TB) is rapidly developing. TB diagnostic modeling can help to inform policy makers and support complicated decisions on diagnostic strategy, with important budgetary implications. Demand for TB diagnostic modeling is likely to increase, and an evaluation of current practice is important. We aimed to systematically review all studies employing mathematical modeling to evaluate cost-effectiveness or epidemiological impact of novel diagnostic strategies for active TB. Methods: Pubmed, personal libraries and reference lists were searched to identify eligible papers. We extracted data on a wide variety of model structure, parameter choices, sensitivity analyses and study conclusions, which were discussed during a meeting of content experts. Results & Discussion From 5619 records a total of 36 papers were included in the analysis. Sixteen papers included population impact/transmission modeling, 5 were health systems models, and 24 included estimates of cost-effectiveness. Transmission and health systems models included specific structure to explore the importance of the diagnostic pathway (n = 4), key determinants of diagnostic delay (n = 5), operational context (n = 5), and the pre-diagnostic infectious period (n = 1). The majority of models implemented sensitivity analysis, although only 18 studies described multi-way sensitivity analysis of more than 2 parameters simultaneously. Among the models used to make cost-effectiveness estimates, most frequent diagnostic assays studied included Xpert MTB/RIF (n = 7), and alternative nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) (n = 4). Most (n = 16) of the cost-effectiveness models compared new assays to an existing baseline and generated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Conclusion: Although models have addressed a small number of important issues, many decisions regarding implementation of TB diagnostics are being made without the full benefits of insight from mathematical models. Further models are needed that address a wider array of diagnostic and epidemiological settings, that explore the inherent uncertainty of models and that include additional epidemiological data on transmission implications of false-negative diagnosis and the pre-diagnostic period

Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making.

The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy), the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions

Trajectories of tuberculosis-specific interferon-gamma release assay responses among medical and nursing students in rural India

AbstractBackgroundInterferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) have been shown to be highly dynamic tests when used in serial testing for TB infection. However, there is little information demonstrating a clear association between TB exposure and IGRA responses over time, particularly in high TB incidence settings.ObjectivesTo assess whether QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) responses are associated with occupational TB exposures in a cohort of young health care trainees in India.MethodsAll medical and nursing students at Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences were approached. Participants were followed up for 18months; QFT was performed 4 times, once every 6months. Various modeling approaches were used to define IFN-gamma trajectories and correlations with TB exposure.ResultsAmong 270 medical and nursing trainees, high rates of conversions (6.3–20.9%) and reversions (20.0–26.2%) were found depending on the definitions used. Stable converters were more likely to have had TB exposure in hospital pre-study. Recent occupational exposures were not consistently associated with QFT responses over time.ConclusionIFN-gamma responses and rates of change could not be explained by occupational exposure investigated. High conversion and subsequent reversion rates suggest many health care workers (HCWs) would revert in the absence of treatment, either by clearing the infection naturally or due to fluctuations in the underlying immunological response and/or poor assay reproducibility. QFT may not be an ideal diagnostic test for repeated screening of HCWs in a high TB incidence setting

Tuberculosis and homelessness in Montreal: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Montreal is Canada's second-largest city, where mean annual tuberculosis (TB) incidence from 1996 to 2007 was 8.9/100,000. The objectives of this study were to describe the epidemiology of TB among homeless persons in Montreal and assess patterns of transmission and sharing of key locations. METHODS: We reviewed demographic, clinical, and microbiologic data for all active TB cases reported in Montreal from 1996 to 2007 and identified persons who were homeless in the year prior to TB diagnosis. We genotyped all available Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates by IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism (IS6110-RFLP) and spoligotyping, and used a geographic information system to identify potential locations for transmission between persons with matching isolates. RESULTS: There were 20 cases of TB in homeless persons, out of 1823 total reported from 1996-2007. 17/20 were Canadian-born, including 5 Aboriginals. Homeless persons were more likely than non-homeless persons to have pulmonary TB (20/20), smear-positive disease (17/20, odds ratio (OR) = 5.7, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7-20), HIV co-infection (12/20, OR = 14, 95%CI: 4.8-40), and a history of substance use. The median duration from symptom onset to diagnosis was 61 days for homeless persons vs. 28 days for non-homeless persons (P = 0.022). Eleven homeless persons with TB belonged to genotype-defined clusters (OR = 5.4, 95%CI: 2.2-13), and ten potential locations for transmission were identified, including health care facilities, homeless shelters/drop-in centres, and an Aboriginal community centre. CONCLUSIONS: TB cases among homeless persons in Montreal raise concerns about delayed diagnosis and ongoing local transmission

The Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of a Four-Month Regimen for First-Line Treatment of Active Tuberculosis in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: A 4-month first-line treatment regimen for tuberculosis disease (TB) is expected to have a direct impact on patient outcomes and societal costs, as well as an indirect impact on Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission. We aimed to estimate this combined impact in a high TB-burden country: South Africa. METHOD: An individual based M. tb transmission model was fitted to the TB burden of South Africa using a standard TB natural history framework. We measured the impact on TB burden from 2015-2035 of introduction of a non-inferior 4-month regimen replacing the standard 6-month regimen as first-line therapy. Impact was measured with respect to three separate baselines (Guidelines, Policy and Current), reflecting differences in adherence to TB and HIV treatment guidelines. Further scenario analyses considered the variation in treatment-related parameters and resistance levels. Impact was measured in terms of differences in TB burden and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) averted. We also examined the highest cost at which the new regimen would be cost-effective for several willingness-to-pay thresholds. RESULTS: It was estimated that a 4-month regimen would avert less than 1% of the predicted 6 million person years with TB disease in South Africa between 2015 and 2035. A similarly small impact was seen on deaths and DALYs averted. Despite this small impact, with the health systems and patient cost savings from regimen shortening, the 4-month regimen could be cost-effective at $436 [NA, 5983] (mean [range]) per month at a willingness-to-pay threshold of one GDP per capita ($6,618). CONCLUSION: The introduction of a non-inferior 4-month first-line TB regimen into South Africa would have little impact on the TB burden. However, under several scenarios, it is likely that the averted societal costs would make such a regimen cost-effective in South Africa

Tuberculosis Infection among Young Nursing Trainees in South India

BackgroundAmong healthcare workers in developing countries, nurses spend a large amount of time in direct contact with tuberculosis (TB) patients, and are at high risk for acquisition of TB infection and disease. To better understand the epidemiology of nosocomial TB among nurses, we recruited a cohort of young nursing trainees at Christian Medical College, a large, tertiary medical school hospital in Southern India.Methodology/Principal FindingsAmong 535 nursing students enrolled in 2007, 468 gave consent to participate, and 436 underwent two-step tuberculin skin testing (TST). [...] (50.2%, 95% CI: 45.4–55.0) were TST positive using the 10 mm or greater cut-off. Based on the LCA, the prevalence of LTBI was 47.8% (95% credible interval 17.8% to 65.6%). In the multivariate analysis, TST positivity was strongly associated with time spent in health care, after adjusting for age at entry into healthcare.ConclusionsOur study showed a high prevalence of LTBI even in young nursing trainees. With the recent TB infection control (TBIC) policy guidance from the World Health Organization as the reference, Indian healthcare providers and the Indian Revised National TB Control Programme will need to implement TBIC interventions, and enhance capacity for TBIC at the country level. Young trainees and nurses, in particular, will need to be targeted for TBIC interventions

High Annual Risk of Tuberculosis Infection among Nursing Students in South India: A Cohort Study

Background: Nurses in developing countries are frequently exposed to infectious tuberculosis (TB) patients, and have a high prevalence of TB infection. To estimate the incidence of new TB infection, we recruited a cohort of young nursing trainees at the Christian Medical College in Southern India. Annual tuberculin skin testing (TST) was conducted to assess the annual risk of TB infection (ARTI) in this cohort. Methodology/Principal Findings: 436 nursing students completed baseline two-step TST testing in 2007 and 217 were TST-negative and therefore eligible for repeat testing in 2008. 181 subjects completed a detailed questionnaire on exposure to tuberculosis from workplace and social contacts. A physician verified the questionnaire and clinical log book and screened the subjects for symptoms of active TB. The majority of nursing students (96.7%) were females, almost 84% were under 22 years of age, and 80% had BCG scars. Among those students who underwent repeat testing in 2008, 14 had TST conversions using the ATS/CDC/IDSA conversion definition of 10 mm or greater increase over baseline. The ARTI was therefore estimated as 7.8% (95%CI: 4.3-12.8%). This was significantly higher than the national average ARTI of 1.5%. Sputum collection and caring for pulmonary TB patients were both high risk activities that were associated with TST conversions in this young nursing cohort. Conclusions: Our study showed a high ARTI among young nursing trainees, substantially higher than that seen in the general Indian population. Indian healthcare providers and the Indian Revised National TB Control Programme will need to implement internationally recommended TB infection control interventions to protect its health care workforce

Lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan assay for detecting active tuberculosis in people living with HIV

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (Diagnostic test accuracy). The objectives are as follows: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of abdominal ultrasound as a standalone test for detecting abdominal TB or disseminated TB with abdominal involvement in HIV‐positive adults

TB STIGMA – MEASUREMENT GUIDANCE

TB is the most deadly infectious disease in the world, and stigma continues to play a significant role in worsening the epidemic. Stigma and discrimination not only stop people from seeking care but also make it more difficult for those on treatment to continue, both of which make the disease more difficult to treat in the long-term and mean those infected are more likely to transmit the disease to those around them. TB Stigma – Measurement Guidance is a manual to help generate enough information about stigma issues to design and monitor and evaluate efforts to reduce TB stigma. It can help in planning TB stigma baseline measurements and monitoring trends to capture the outcomes of TB stigma reduction efforts. This manual is designed for health workers, professional or management staff, people who advocate for those with TB, and all who need to understand and respond to TB stigma

How much does HIV self-testing cost in low and middle income countries? A systematic review of evidence from economic studies

ObjectivesHIV self-testing (HIVST) has been proposed as an innovative strategy to diagnose human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). While HIVST offers the potential to broaden accessibility of early HIV diagnosis and treatment initiation, this testing strategy incurs additional cost and requires confirmatory testing and treatment. We have conducted the first systematic review to summarize the current economic literature for HIVST in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).DesignA search strategy was developed including key terms for HIV, self-testing and cost-effectiveness and was conducted in Medline and Embase databases. Studies were included that reported costs per outcome and included both cost-effectiveness and cost-utility outcome measures. The search strategy identified publications up until August 15, 2023 were included. Abstract and full text screening was conducted and a standardized data abstraction form was used for included studies. Costs are reported in USD, 2020.ResultsOur search strategy identified 536 total titles from the search strategy, which were screened down to 25 relevant studies that provided both cost and outcome data on HIVST. There was significant heterogeneity in the HIVST intervention, study population, costs and outcomes reported among included studies. Cost per person tested ranged from $1.09–155. Cost per case diagnosed ranged from$20–1,277. Cost-utility estimates ranged from cost-saving to $1846 per DALY averted. Higher cost-effectiveness estimates were associated with more expensive testing algorithms with increased support for linkage to care and post-test counseling.ConclusionAll studies considered HIVST cost-effective although major drivers were identified included underlying HIV prevalence, testing cost and linkage to care. HIVST is likely to be cost-effective in a LMIC context, however policy makers should be aware of the drivers of cost-effectiveness when implementing HIVST programs as these underlying factors can impact the overall cost-effectiveness of HIVST